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COMMENTARY

by Frank Graves

On June 21, 2024, Frank Graves was awarded the degree of Doctor of Laws, honoris causa, from Carleton University in recognition of a distinguished career in public opinion and policy research and outstanding contributions to research-based policy making. Below is his convocation address to Carleton University's 161st convocation ceremony.

First, let me express my deep gratitude at being honoured by my institution. In the next 5 minutes, I will try and distill some of the key insights I have drawn from the past 50 years. This gives me roughly a minute for every decade of research so I will speak briskly.

In looking at the constellation of trends that I have been studying I must note that I have never seen our country in such a dark and divided state. Whether looking at confidence in national direction, outlook on the future, fears of the external world or even basic attachment to our country and public institutions, I am recording unprecedented record low scores on key barometers of social cohesion. If anything, these nadirs are even lower amongst younger Canada and notably the incidence of those who see a university education as a sound investment has plummeted from 85 to 45% over the past 20 years (lower still amongst young men).

We live in an era which sees a crisis of both trust and truth. A growing number believe that climate change is a hoax and forest fires are a product of arsonists. Nearly a third believe that governments have intentionally concealed the real number of deaths from vaccines. The web of designed deceit is broadening and deepening and we are losing this contest for the future. Disinformation is polarizing our society in ways that we have never seen. At best we can take some comfort in knowing that these forces are by no means unique to Canada, but gripping most advanced western democracies.

The purpose of these observations is not to depress but to issue a call for action. If we are experiencing an epistemic and trust crisis what better stalwart against these corrosive forces than the university? A wonderful quote apocryphally attributed to Mark Twain notes that history does not repeat itself but it often rhymes. A century ago, the world was emerging from a great war in Europe, a global pandemic and gilded age economies with hyperconcentration of wealth at the top were on the verge of collapse. A centrist populist movement in America led by the Roosevelt's produced a new deal which saw the rise of the middle class and shared prosperity. However, similar threats produced a very different populist response in Europe in the form of authoritarian populism and fascism and all of those ensuing horrors.

Societies and democracies need to choose wisely for our next 50 years and, despite a period of epistemic crisis, I believe that universities and their graduates are a precondition for negotiating a healthy path out of these dark forces. Patrick Moynihan's old saw that we can have our own opinions but we cannot have our own facts has sadly become a quaint anachronism. Passively charting these trends is not enough.

I remain optimistic but vigilant and I urge those going forward in their chosen careers and professions to be mindful of the depth of the historic challenges that we face and to use this as a spur to excellence and influence. Speaking truth to power in pursuit of a better world should be our lodestar.

Frank Graves is one of Canada's leading public opinion, social policy and public policy experts as well as being one of its leading applied social researchers. In 1980, he founded EKOS Research Associates Inc., an applied social and economic research firm. He is an Adjunct Research Professor, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Carleton University, Ottawa, and is a member of the Federal Vaccine Confidence Task Force Group and a Fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI).