Energy Security Forum Newsletter



Main Takeaways for the week of March 9, 2022

The decoupling of Western and Eastern economies is in full swing. Western sanctions draw huge trade faultlines, with the U.S. and EU in opposition to Russia and China. Western energy companies are refusing to buy Russian oil. Aramco warns that there isn’t enough spare production. The EU looks to secure additional 50bcm of LNG. Russia threatens to shut off Nord Stream 1. U.S. attempts reproachment with Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. China will likely fill in gaps in Russian commodity investment and consumption. Boris Johnson calls for “climate pass” for Canadian and American energy production. Nickel prices hit $100k/tonne, raising questions about battery cost declines.

Featured Article

The Invasion of Ukraine Is Causing Crisis at Sea, by Elisabeth Braw, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute for Foreign Policy



Global Petroleum Liquids

Global LNG

Global Coal

North American Energy Infrastructure

  • No significant developments

U.S. - China Energy Relations

EU – Russia Energy Relations

China – Russia Energy Relations

U.S. - Canada Energy Relations

Middle East Energy Geopolitics

Central Asia Energy Geopolitics

  • No significant developments

Canadian Oil and Gas







  • No significant developments


  • No significant developments




Fertilizer and Food


Ultimately, the Biden administration just needs to play a supporting role as oil and gas companies take their cues from the market and from investors. Shale companies are in their best financial shape since the beginning of the unconventional oil and gas boom. With oil prices at this level, the industry has all the incentives it needs to raise production. Shale companies cannot simply flip a switch, and it will likely take six months or more to raise output, but a big ramp-up in production is all but inevitable.

From Call Houston and Wall Street for an Emergency Summit, by Ben Cahill for the Center for Strategic and International Studies


Russia’s unilateral initiatives to escape the hold of the dollar may be defensive in nature, but it has also worked with other countries to chip away at the dollar’s dominance. These coalitions present a long-term threat to the dollar’s preeminent role in international commerce and, consequently, a challenge to U.S. global leadership.

From The Anti-Dollar Axis, by Zongyuan Zoe Liu and Mihaela Papa for Foreign Affairs


Europe is unlikely to use public funds to support an expansion in gas production unless that investment can be made compatible with its long-term aspirations to be climate neutral by 2050. To square this circle, Europe and the United States can make sure that their joint push for gas can support the world’s efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions. This can happen by targeting the biggest climate prize of all: coal consumption in Asia.

From How U.S. LNG Could Help Europe and Climate, by Nikos Tsafos for the Center for Strategic and International Studies


Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last month, it was becoming obvious that the current extreme degree of globalization was unsustainable. Companies can’t keep operating as if there are no borders when countries are increasingly squaring off against one another. Russia has now dealt a severe blow to globalization and its foremost representative, global shipping.

From The Invasion of Ukraine Is Causing Crisis at Sea, by Elisabeth Braw for Foreign Policy


Accelerating investment in clean and efficient technologies is at the heart of the solution, but even very rapid deployment will take time to make a major dent in demand for imported gas. The faster EU policy makers seek to move away from Russian gas supplies, the greater the potential implications in terms of economic costs and/or near-term emissions.

From A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas, by The International Energy Agency


We have already seen stoppages in Europe at production facilities such as fertiliser plants, which are highly sensitive to natural-gas prices — the ammonia they require is produced from hydrogen derived from methane. Going forward, with a $15 difference between US and European natural gas and no end in sight, businesses will naturally shut production. Beyond such curtailments, non-critical industries will also need to be incentivised or forced to close production, noting that industry represents 20% of the continent's demand for natural gas. A 200TWh saving may be possible with such measures.

From The 1,600TWh challenge: The six key steps needed to wean Europe off Russian gas, by Gerard Reid for Recharge News

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