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Main Takeaways for the week of February 9, 2022

Concerns about short oil supply in 2022 and 2023 are keeping oil prices high, although the potential for a breakthrough on JCPOA talks has slightly cooled the run-up. Disputes over LNG strain relationship between Japan and Qatar, as the U.S. pulls the Emirate closer. EU and U.S. gain more alignment on response to Russia, even as Macron pursues own negotiations with Putin. Russia bans exports of major nitrogen fertilizer ingredient just as it is needed in South America. Kazakhstan asks oil companies politely to divert oil to domestic refineries.


Featured Article

Don’t Blame Putin for Europe’s Energy Crisis, by Jason Bordoff, dean of Columbia Climate School and Director of the Center on global Energy Policy for Foreign Policy


Headlines

Global Petroleum Liquids

Global LNG

Global Coal

North American Energy Infrastructure

U.S. - China Energy Relations

EU – Russia Energy Relations

China – Russia Energy Relations

U.S. - Canada Energy Relations

U.S. – EU Energy Relations

Middle East Energy Geopolitics

Central Asia Energy Geopolitics

Canadian Oil and Gas

Electricity

Renewables

Copper

Lithium

Nickel

Cobalt

  • No significant developments

Carbon

Hydrogen

  • No significant developments

Nuclear

Biofuels


Quotes

Oil prices, now at their highest level since 2014, have made up 27 percent of the “excess” inflation since the pandemic began, according to the financial journalist Matthew C. Klein. Yet despite widespread Democratic agreement over its terms, Congress has not yet passed President Joe Biden’s climate and energy package, which could start to relieve this mess. If the mismatch between producers and consumers continues, higher oil prices—and higher prices for energy in general—could stick around for a long time.

From The Rise of Greenflation, by Robinson Meyer for The Atlantic

In the event that inflation rises and then remains intolerably above target, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate. In theory, this is the conventional policy response necessary to stabilize inflation under a passive fiscal policy regime. But if the fiscal authority is determined to pursue its deficit policy into the indefinite future, raising the policy rate may only keep a lid on inflation temporarily and possibly only at the expense of a recession. In the longer run, an aggressive interest rate policy may contribute to inflationary pressure—at least until the fiscal regime changes.

From Is It Time for Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic?, by David Andolfatto for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review

Wind, solar and electric vehicles aren’t enough to generate the kinds of returns that Barclays private bank wants to offer its environmental, social and governance investment clients. Instead, “it’s the second order of ideas that are of interest,” said Damian Payiatakis, who leads a team advising individuals, families and charities, as well as private and public market specialists on ethical and sustainable investing.

From Barclays Steers Ultra-Rich Clients Toward New ESG Entrepreneurs, by Morwenna Coniam for Bloomberg

Qatar potentially holds a crucial role in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the two international crises draining Biden's political resources. Though the emir's visit simply reflects that reality, some in Tokyo wonder where the U.S. administration's true priorities lie after a year of stressing that the Indo-Pacific, and especially China, is the No. 1 concern.

From Biden’s elevation of energy-rich Qatar stuns Japan, by Hirofumi Matsuo for Nikkei Asia

More recently, in January, the Saudis agreed to a Russian increase in production but resisted pressure from the West to step in and unleash its own reserve capacity to halt spiking prices, which are feeding inflation and, in turn, the erosion of public support for US President Joe Biden and other western democratic leaders.

From Russia-Ukraine crisis: When oil prices climb, Putin gets bolder, by Michael Moran for Al Jazeera English

This market is incredibly vulnerable to any kind of supply or demand disruption, much like we saw in European gas and power late last year. Oil has now teed itself up to look very similar to what European gas and power looked like. We highlighted this in late October last year, and we’re at that point right now. So the question is, can you come up with any supply or reduction in demand as you move into the spring in order to ease the situation?

Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Godman Sachs for Bloomberg TV

OPEC+ too may do the unexpected. Nigeria, Angola and a few others may be at capacity but, if prices rise above US$100 a barrel, other members will come under domestic pressure to pump. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq can easily add a total of 3 million barrels a day above their current output. While Russia may appear to be tapped out, it would be wrong to assume it could not produce more by June or December. Vladimir Putin needs as many petrodollars as he can get, and will push everyone to deliver.

From What if Goldman is Wrong and a Lonely Oil Bear is Right? By Javier Blas for Bloomberg


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