Energy Security Forum Newsletter



Main Takeaways for the week of February 23, 2022

Russia moves into Eastern Ukraine, moving the pieces into position for a wider invasion. Sanctions on investment in the occupied regions and on Nord Stream 2 are unlikely to change Russia's calculations. China provides limited support for Russia, but even that may be a mistake as the world organizes itself into four poles, with China aligning itself with the Russia against the EU and U.S. Shell sees increasing tightness in global LNG markets. Indonesia will be keeping more of its domestically produced coal. Japan’s Nippon Steel asks for massive subsidies for decarbonization, as JERA seeks 500 mtpa of ammonia. Nickel hits a decade high on concerns over Russian supply.

Featured Article

Supply Chain Resilience Key to the Future of a Global and Local Automobile Market, by Sarah Goldfeder for the Canadian Global Affairs Institute


Global Petroleum Liquids

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U.S. - China Energy Relations

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Although war in Ukraine would not pose an immediate military threat to Estonia or NATO, Russia’s political and military pressure on the Baltic states could increase in the long term should Russia achieve diplomatic and/or military success on the Ukraine issue. Even if Russia’s leadership can be persuaded to desist from military aggression, Estonia and other Western countries must prepare for increasingly sustained military pressure from Russia – direct threats of war have become an integral part of the foreign policy of Putin’s Russia over the past year.


If Moscow can demonstrate that Western security guarantees mean little, then it can contrast Western abandonment of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Ashraf Ghani in Afghanistan, and Ukraine, with Russia’s determined support of Bashar Al-Assad. Though this pitch may be unpalatable to publics it is more appealing to governments.

  • From The Plot to Destroy Ukraine, by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds for the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies


Chinese strategists view Russia, the United States, and Europe as the most important determinants of the global balance of power. They have long seen Europe’s dreams of a multipolar world as aligned with their own. By cementing the split between Russia and Europe, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would thus risk dividing the most important powers into two blocs—Russia and China on one side and the United States and Europe on the other—re-creating the Cold War security arrangements that China claims to vehemently oppose. Making matters worse, China would be aligned with the weakest of the three other powers.

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