Image credit: Aviator Gregory Cole, Canadian Armed Forces Photo
A joint publication with:
by Alexander Salt
March 2024
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Technology and Our North, Strong and Free
- Looking Ahead
- Annex 1: List of Emerging Technologies discussed in Our North, Strong and Free
- End Notes
- About the Author
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute
Introduction
On 8 April 2024, the Trudeau government released its much-anticipated Defence Policy Update, Our North, Strong and Free, aimed at guiding Canadian defence in response to significant shifts in the global security environment. The new policy succeeds 2017’s Strong Secure Engaged (SSE), continuing several initiatives while also introducing new priorities. It is somewhat unusual for a Canadian government to issue a second defence policy so soon after its predecessor, but the release of Our North, Strong and Free is driven by several urgent factors: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s growing military power, climate change, and emerging threats to North America.1 Historically, quick updates to defence policies have occurred only twice before—by Pierre Elliot Trudeau's Liberal government in the 1970s and Brian Mulroney's Conservative government in the early 1990s. Recently, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also pledged to raise Canada’s defence spending to two per cent of GDP by 2032, starting with several billion dollars in additional funding next year. However, uncertainty remains over the specifics of these spending commitments moving forward.2
Canada's Global Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly highlighted the increasing significance of Artificial Intelligence in her introduction to the new policy, marking a clear shift toward greater integration of emerging technologies in Canadian defence. Indeed, Our North, Strong and Free outright cites emerging technologies as one of the core drivers of contemporary security affairs and geopolitics of a changing world. This article reviews the new policy update and finds that while the discussion on emerging technologies has been expanded, there are serious questions about the practical integration of these capabilities within the Department of National Defence (DND) and the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF).
Technology and Our North, Strong and Free
The policy update outlines which technological procurements that have confirmed funding as well as some additional options that are being explored, with a final decision on those additional initiatives to be made at a future date. Several emerging technologies fall under both categories. Further, several geographic areas are identified as holding particular importance in the contemporary global strategic environment that will require more targeted technological investments to expand and enhance Canadian defence capabilities. These areas include the Arctic and Northern Canada, as well as the Indo-Pacific.
As a result of the Arctic focus of the new policy, NORAD modernization and continental defence issues receive considerable attention. Several emerging technological systems are linked directly to NORAD modernization, including new investments in satellites and space-related infrastructure, Arctic and Polar Over-the-Horizon-Radar systems, as well as continued integration of newer capabilities such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, cyber capabilities, and cloud-based computing and networks. Cloud technology in particular is viewed as something that can further enhance the CAF’s digitized command, control, communications and computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) capabilities.
The discussion of integrated air and missile defence in Our North, Strong and Free is closely linked to NORAD modernization, receiving far more attention than it did under SSE. Interestingly, there is no new mention of ballistic missile defence (BMD); instead, the focus shifts to threats from hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. This opens the door for Canada to reconsider its missile defence strategy in the future. However, the government's stance of non-participation in BMD remains unchanged, which poses further complications for Canada. Many practical questions remain about how the CAF will contribute to missile defence, especially with its selective focus on certain missile threats, while relying on the U.S. to address others. For example, this approach appears to presume that the U.S. will continue to protect Canadian territory in the event of a future ballistic missile attack. Despite this uncertainty, there are plans for new Canadian investments in airborne early warning aircraft as well as the possible acquisition of ground-based air defence systems to protect critical infrastructure.
Cyber related investments, some of which are also tied to NORAD modernization, contain some of the most impactful emerging technological related changes discussed in Our North, Strong and Free. This includes formal changes to the CAF’s structure, with the establishment of a new Cyber Command, which will allow the CAF to better enhance the development and coordination of offensive and defensive cyber capabilities under a unified leadership structure. The introduction of this new command may become one of the most influential organizational innovations for the CAF in recent years. Cyber is linked to a wide range of issues relevant to the CAF, including the aggressive use of cyber attacks by Russia during the war in Ukraine. Other emerging technologies such as AI will likely be able to enhance the CAF’s cyber capabilities in future. The relatively thorough examination of Canada’s planned cyber capabilities, coupled with the confirmed investments in this regard, strongly suggests that it is a main priority for the government. This indicates that cyber issues are likely to be given precedence and resources over other initiatives outlined in the policy. Overall, the cyber capabilities of the DND and CAF stand out as one of the more advanced and well-established emerging technologies.
Several other emerging technological areas are also highlighted in the policy update. Quantum computing receives considerably more attention compared to SSE. Quantum computing is linked with big-data analytics, which may have a large effect on encryption capabilities as well as sustainment and business operations of the DND and CAF. Unmanned systems and robotics are highlighted as holding a growing importance to the character of war, especially small and cheaply produced drones, whose ability to damage and destroy larger and more expensive military equipment has been demonstrated in Ukraine. Our North, Strong and Free states that Canada will explore the acquisition of a new generation of long-range precision munitions for the Royal Canadian Air Force and Royal Canadian Navy, and also confirms it will acquire long range missiles for the Army. It also, very briefly, mentions synthetic biology as an emerging technology of interest, but does not go into significant detail about its potential application. Various space-based platforms, including low earth orbit satellites are discussed as being very important to the DND and CAF as well as research and development into autonomy and counter-autonomy.
AI is recognized as holding considerable importance for the DND and CAF beyond its contribution to NORAD modernization and enhancing cyber capabilities. AI is linked to a wide number of formal applications, including enhancing command and control capabilities, situational awareness, and assisting in targeting. Our North, Strong and Free openly acknowledges the significant relevancy of this technology, stating that, “AI will fundamentally transform conventional military warfare and competition below the threshold of conflict”.3 AI is also connected to the DND and CAF’s digital transformation efforts. Digital transformation will aim to enhance the data management and business operations of the DND and CAF while connecting and enhancing other emerging technological areas such as cloud-based computing and networks. Achieving digital transformation necessitates broader organizational changes within DND and CAF, fostering a culture that embraces digitization at all levels. The CAF needs to change to be able to both attract and retain skilled personnel from across Canadian society to meet these challenges. Addressing issues like reducing bureaucratic barriers on security screenings and quality of life issues for personnel and their families will help the CAF to maintain the talent to achieve its new goals.
Our North, Strong and Free also highlights the importance of approaching technological research and development through inter-allied pathways. Canada will participate in the NATO Innovation Fund, with the intention of helping to fund Canadian startups focused on technology such as AI and quantum computing, among other emerging technological areas. Five Eyes (FVEY) is another key area of allied technological cooperation, as several emerging technologies including undersea capabilities, cyber, quantum, AI, hypersonic and various electronic warfare assets retain considerable interest to the partnership.
In connection to emerging technology Canada will continue to undergo a review and reform of its procurement system. This is an open admittance by the government that things have not been working anywhere nearly as efficiently as they should, with the document stating that “Defence procurement takes too long in Canada and needs to be faster and more effective.”4 There is a clear need to procure systems for the DND and CAF at a quicker speed, while also building stronger relationships between Canada’s defence and domestic industry. Canada will undergo a new defence policy review every four years, which in part is intended to ensure that the procurement system in Canada remains agile, avoiding stagnation.
Looking Ahead
Overall, Our North, Strong and Free presents a new vision for emerging technologies and Canadian defence, however, to succeed it will require an effective implementation plan. This latest policy update successfully identifies a wider range of potentially relevant emerging technologies for Canada to focus current and future investments and will serve to generate a wider discourse surrounding technology within (and beyond) the defence community. It also presents a sober threat assessment of the many challenges facing Canada presently and into the near future. Positively, it represents the first steps regarding the eventual acquisition and integration of many necessary capabilities for the DND and CAF to allow them to better respond to those threats.
The Canadian defence community needs to think more about how it can tangibly acquire and operationalize the emerging technologies discussed in the new policy update. Prime Minister Trudeau recently suggested that Canada is considering formally joining the AUKUS alliance, and in particular, to participate in the Pillar 2 element of technological cooperation, remarking that, “[w]e are already observers in one of the working groups in Pillar 2 of AUKUS and we have had excellent conversations with both the U.S. and U.K. and Australia as how we can work even closer”.5 This course of action should be aggressively pursued, as it will open up a large number of opportunities for Canada to enhance and rapidly build its emerging technology capabilities by sharing costs and knowledge with some of its closest defence partners. Joining some element of AUKUS would attenuate the lost access that has come with the emergence of this new alliance. Further, Canada should continue to explore additional inter-allied technological sharing arrangements, either at a bilateral or multilateral level as a means of expediating research and development efforts.
In some ways, Our North, Strong and Free builds off the recent technologically related documents released by the DND and CAF such as Quantum 2030 and AI Strategy which indicates that Canadian defence is generating more serious thinking about emerging technologies. What remains to be seen, however, is whether Canada will be able to successfully procure such technology while also integrating them into its doctrine, force structures and business operations. The new policy presents a firmer understanding of what technological systems that may be acquired in a near future time frame. Even the systems that are still under the exploration phase for procurement purposes may still be eventually confirmed for formal acquisition. Some of the systems that are described as being “explored” include new ground-based air defences, and new long-range air and sea-launched missiles.
However, the lack of firm commitments for some of these projects means a degree of uncertainty will remain. If Canada delays too long on taking action regarding several of the projects described as being under exploration, it will have several trickle-down consequences. Delayed procurements means that meaningful organizational changes for the CAF will also be pushed down the road. Genuine military innovation is a very complex and difficult process but is a necessary component of properly responding to rising international threats.6 Lengthy delays potentially cedes the innovation advantage to adversaries such as China, Russia, as well as North Korea and Iran as they strengthen their own capabilities. The longer Canada waits to procure many of these necessary emerging technologies, the greater risk for Canada’s continental defence and international security commitments.
In conclusion, Our North, Strong and Free sets a new strategic direction for Canada’s defence policy by emphasizing emerging technologies in response to evolving international threats. To ensure the timely adoption of innovations like AI, cyber capabilities, and quantum computing, the government must streamline bureaucracy, accelerate procurement, build stronger international partnerships, and guarantee consistent funding. The DND and CAF must also foster a pro-digitization culture to turn these advancements into operational capabilities. Ultimately, success hinges on the government’s ability to translate policy into action by overcoming organizational challenges and committing to sustained investment in technological innovation.
Annex 1: List of Emerging Technologies discussed in Our North, Strong and Free
Advanced Submarines
Air and Missile Defence Capabilities
Artificial intelligence
Autonomy and Counter-Autonomy
Big-Data
Cyber Capabilities
Cloud-based Systems
Command, Control, Communications and Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) Capabilities
Counter-drone Capabilities
Data Analytics
Digital Networks
Energy and Propulsion Innovation
Enhanced Long-term Arctic Satellite Communications
F 35 Joint Strike Fighter
Hypersonic Missiles
Human Enhancement
Long Range Munitions (Long-Range Ground, Air and Sea launched Missiles)
Machine Learning
Next Generation Airborne Early Warning Aircraft
Novel Materials
Polar and Arctic Over the Horizon Radar
Position Navigation and Timing Air Navigation Infrastructure and Systems
Satellites and Space Capabilities
Specialized Maritime Sensors
Synthetic Biotechnology
Unmanned Systems
End Notes
1 Dave Perry, interview with, Nicholas Todd, RAdm (Ret’d) Jeff Hamilton, Rob Huebert, Philippe Lagassé, Charlotte Duval-Lantoine, “Reviewing the Defence Policy Review,” Defence Deconstructed Podcast, podcast audio, (2024) https://www.cgai.ca/reviewing_the_defence_policy_review
2 Kyle Duggan, “Trudeau pledges Canada will hit 2 percent NATO target – by 2032,” Politico (11 Jul 2024), https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/11/trudeau-pledges-canada-will-hit-2-percent-target-by-2032-00167595
3 DND, “Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence,” p. 9.
4 DND, “Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence,” p. 20.
5 “Canada exploring possibility of joining AUKUS alliance, Trudeau says,” Global News (8 Apr 2024), https://globalnews.ca/news/10409582/canada-aukus-alliance-trudeau/
6 Salt, Alexander. 2024. “Military Organizational Change and Emerging Technology: Lessons for Canada,” Canadian Global Affairs Institute, https://www.cgai.ca/military_organizational_change_and_emerging_technology_lessons_for_canada
About the Author
Dr. Alexander Salt has a PhD from the University of Calgary's Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies and an MA in Political Studies from the University of Manitoba. His dissertation explores to what extent has the battlefield experience of the U.S. military influenced post-war organizational innovation. His research has been awarded the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada's Joseph-Armand Bombardier Doctoral Award, as well as a General Lemuel C. Shepherd, Jr. Memorial Dissertation Fellowship. He has published research relating to international security and defence policy with Strategic Studies Quarterly, Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, and The Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security, and Society. Previously, he was a Visiting Political Science Instructor with Macalester College and has also held positions with the Centre for Defence and Security Studies, as well as the Consulate General of Canada in Dallas, Texas, and the Consulate General of Canada in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Canadian Global Affairs Institute
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