Photo by: Yayoi Woods, Public Relations & Culture, Consulate-General of Japan in Calgary
by Abigail Finnamore
October 2026
Table of Contents
- Breakfast Discussion Overview
- Executive Summary
- A Significant Shift in the Global Order
- The Case for Economic Security: Lessons from Japan
- Energy to Drive Canada–Japan Cooperation
- Cementing a Trusted Partnership
- Moving Toward Joint Leadership in a Middle-Power Coalition
- Conclusion
- Key Takeaways
- About the Author
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute
Breakfast Discussion Overview
As Canada and Japan approach a century of diplomatic relations, their partnership is taking on renewed importance. In a global environment where international rules are no longer universally followed and supply chains are increasingly weaponized, Canada and Japan’s shared values and complementary strengths makes deepening bilateral cooperation even more compelling.
At a recent Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI) breakfast discussion, invited speakers explored the prospects for greater Canada–Japan economic security cooperation. The event opened with remarks from Japan’s Consul General in Calgary Takehiko Wajima and Vivek Warrier of Osler, followed by a keynote from Dr. Kazuto Suzuki, Professor of Science and Technology Policy at the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo. A panel discussion and audience Q&A, moderated by Joe Calnan of CGAI, featured Dr. Suzuki alongside Shannon Joseph of Energy for a Secure Future and Richard Masson of Northern Nations Cooperative. This report summarizes key themes and insights from the event.
Executive Summary
Speakers discussed an increasingly unpredictable environment shaped by supply chain disruption, economic coercion, and geopolitical conflicts, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For both countries, these developments have exposed the risks of heavy economic reliance on a single dominant partner: China for Japan, and the United States for Canada. Drawing on Japan’s experience, Dr. Suzuki outlined the increasing need to prioritize economic security and how it rests on two objectives, strategic autonomy and strategic indispensability. Canada and Japan’s shared values and complementary strengths make them natural partners in achieving this.
Energy emerged in various speakers’ remarks as the cornerstone of this partnership. Canada’s chokepoint-free Pacific trade route and expanding LNG capacity, alongside Japanese investment and technology, signal a prosperous energy partnership. Realizing this potential relies on trust. Speakers also stressed that Canada must sustain its attention to Asia, deliver projects on time, and deepen mutual understanding. From this foundation, the bilateral partnership could grow beyond energy, positioning Canada and Japan to jointly lead a broader coalition of middle powers, with an upgraded Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as its vehicle. Ultimately, the path forward lies not in decoupling from dominant partners, but in reducing dependence through greater cooperation among trusted ones.
A Significant Shift in the Global Order
An anchoring theme throughout the discussion was the erosion of the global order that both Canada and Japan have long relied upon. Consul General Wajima described an international environment that is increasingly complex and unreliable, marked by supply chain disruptions, the misuse of advanced technologies, and economic coercion. Dr. Suzuki characterized this current moment as “a world without leadership.” The United States, long assumed to be the guardian of free trade, is now exercising its market power by imposing tariffs on allies and rivals alike. China, by contrast, has little interest in assuming global leadership, but is increasingly ambitious in reshaping the regional order in East Asia. Following Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s November remarks on Taiwan, for example, Beijing restricted exports of dual-use items to 40 Japanese entities and halted the flow of Chinese tourists and students to Japan.
Underpinning these tensions is a weakening of international rules. Dr. Suzuki pointed to volatile tariffs, invasions of sovereign states, and the blocking of judicial appointments to the WTO’s Appellate Body, leaving few consequences for those who disregard the rules. Beyond this, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran conflict has shown how geoeconomic leverage has become a weapon in its own right. Such disruptions to energy traffic have driven up global energy prices and acutely exposed the vulnerabilities of import-dependent nations like Japan, which sources 94% of its crude oil from the Middle East.
Canada has faced similar tensions in its relationship with the U.S., yet both Japan and Canada remain committed to a rules-based international order. If international rules can no longer be universally relied upon for protection, nations like Canada and Japan, Dr. Suzuki argued, must work together to counter coercion and mitigate risk. This, he explained, is the essence of economic security.
The Case for Economic Security: Lessons from Japan
For Japan, an island nation dependent on international trade and cooperation with partners, economic security has become a national priority. Dr. Suzuki defined it as “building the capacity to counter pressure and coercion from other countries through economic means.” It rests on two objectives: strategic autonomy, avoiding excessive dependence by diversifying toward trusted partners; and strategic indispensability, becoming so essential within supply chains that others cannot easily exert leverage.
Japan learned these lessons in 2010, when China restricted rare earth exports, exposing Japan’s 90% rare earth dependence on China and leaving its automotive industry short of critical components. By investing in Australian supply and Malaysian processing in response, Japan reduced that dependence to approximately 60% by 2024, accepting higher costs in exchange for greater autonomy.
On strategic indispensability, Dr. Suzuki identified four core sources: goods, markets, logistics, and currency. The framework helps to explain the current détente between the U.S. and China, in which America’s indispensable market size and China’s indispensable rare earths offset one another’s leverage. For Japan, this stability has coincided with heightened pressure from Beijing, making U.S. engagement in East Asia vital to the balance of power.
This context explains Japan’s $550 billion U.S. investment pledge, agreed in exchange for lower tariffs, which Dr. Suzuki framed as an investment in shared resilience rather than a concession. Four of the six agreed projects focus on energy to power AI data centres, while a synthetic diamond facility in Georgia reduces reliance on China, which produces 90% of this next-generation semiconductor material.
These priorities inform Prime Minister Takaichi’s national growth strategy, spanning 17 strategic sectors, including AI, defence, and energy and resources. Notably, it excludes the automotive sector, which already attracts significant private investment and, as a downstream industry, cannot deliver indispensability.
Cooperation with trusted partners is critical to achieving this strategy. Dr. Suzuki highlighted that beyond shared values, Canada and Japan have particularly complementary industrial structures. Canada holds energy and critical mineral resources, while Japan has the technology. With Pacific export routes free of chokepoints, Canada is also well placed to develop a strategic indispensability of its own, particularly in energy.
Energy to Drive Canada-Japan Cooperation
Energy emerged as a cornerstone of economic security between Canada and Japan. Shannon Joseph observed that Asia has been the region most disrupted by recent energy shocks, with many countries less than 50% energy self-sufficient and priorities now shifting from climate alone toward security of supply. When the Hormuz conflict began, Japan held roughly three weeks of gas storage. Japan’s strategic energy plan now places a strong focus on resilience, diversifying energy sources and suppliers, expanding storage, and securing long-term contracts. The benefits run both ways, with Japanese demand serving to strengthen Canada’s own economic security by diversifying its export markets.
Canada is particularly well placed to meet this need. Energy shipments from Canada’s Pacific coast can reach Japan in approximately 10 days without chokepoints, and Japanese investment is already deeply embedded in Canada’s energy sector, with Vivek Warrier pointing to firms such as Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and JAPEX. Mitsubishi Corporation's stake in LNG Canada is a case in point, with the project’s recent Phase 2 investment decision set to double capacity from 14 to 28 million tonnes annually.
Heavy crude presents a greater challenge. Richard Masson noted that processing oil sands bitumen requires conversion capacity many Asian refineries lack, though this is solvable with investment. He also highlighted innovations such as Northern Nations Cooperative’s proposal to ship undiluted bitumen by rail in plastic bladders within containers as a non-hazardous product. With the Pacific Link pipeline now on the federal major projects list, momentum is growing.
Sustainability can strengthen this offer further. Dr. Suzuki pointed to the Japanese government’s efforts to revitalize nuclear power, including through small modular reactors, alongside a strategic focus on carbon capture. He also noted the emerging appetite for an environmental premium, as technology companies building data centres in Japan press power providers for cleaner energy. Masson noted that the Canada–Japan relationship already has a sustainability dimension to build on, with Canada exporting over a million tonnes of wood pellets a year to Japanese power plants to help reduce their carbon footprint. Looking ahead, carbon capture projects such as Alberta’s Pathways initiative could also help to reduce emissions from oil sands production.
Cementing a Trusted Partnership
Speakers agreed that realizing this partnership potential depends on trust. Asked whether Japan views Canada as a trustworthy partner, Dr. Suzuki offered the candid view that much of Canada’s recent diplomatic engagement has focused on Europe. For partners such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and Singapore, sustained attention to Asia, including at the highest political level, would help cement that trust.
Delivery matters equally. Joseph acknowledged that Canada has not always kept its promises on project timelines, but noted the world now wants Canada to succeed, with Japanese companies returning and urging Canada to increase the pace. Current pressures, she argued, give Canada an opportunity to advance its capabilities in developing infrastructure and deepening global partnerships. Joseph added that fulfilling commitments and informing Canadians how these projects benefit both the country and its global partners will be key to sustaining that momentum.
Core to this is deeper mutual understanding, Dr. Suzuki’s central recommendation for a strong economic security partnership. Japan is “on the move,” he argued, yet its strategy is not well understood in Canada, while Japan itself has few Canada specialists. Research offers a strong foundation to address this deficit. Dr. Suzuki stressed the importance of trusted research networks in today’s climate, while Joseph noted that closer research collaboration could enhance Canadian understanding of partners’ realities and their key priorities. Built on these foundations, the Canada–Japan partnership has the potential to extend well beyond bilateral ties and energy alone.
Moving Toward Joint Leadership in a Middle-Power Coalition
At the heart of Dr. Suzuki’s keynote was a call for Canada and Japan to form the core of a middle-power coalition committed to a rules-based order. He noted that Prime Minister Carney’s address at Davos prompted Japan to recognize itself as a middle power willing to join such a coalition. As beneficiaries of international rules, the two countries have both the incentive and the complementary strengths to build what Dr. Suzuki described as “joint strategic autonomy,” collectively reducing dependence on dominant states.
The most concrete vehicle is the CPTPP. As two of its major economies, Dr. Suzuki proposed that Canada and Japan jointly lead its next stage, upgrading the agreement into a WTO-style framework for rules-based trade and continuing to expand its membership. The U.K. has already joined, with others ready to follow. The CPTPP itself can also create a collective form of market indispensability, providing middle powers leverage that none hold alone.
Yet, as Dr. Suzuki’s presentation noted, diversification cannot be achieved exclusively among like-minded states. A middle-power coalition could engage the Global South, helping to fill the gap left by USAID and to avoid dependence on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Joseph gave this substance by highlighting that energy demand growth in emerging Asia is equivalent to adding another China, and countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam face significant infrastructure gaps. Japan already plays an important role supporting infrastructure development across Asia, and Joseph argued that Canada should work with Japan on this broader agenda, contributing its expertise and institutions like Export Development Canada to help grow its network of partners.
Conclusion
The discussion underscored that, in a transforming geopolitical landscape, economic security can no longer be taken for granted. For both countries, the answer lies not in decoupling from dominant partners, but in reducing dependence on them. As Dr. Suzuki observed, Japan cannot detach from China, still its largest trading partner, while Masson and Joseph emphasized that the United States will remain Canada’s dominant market. Yet economic efficiency alone can no longer justify over-reliance on any single partner. With complementary strengths and a shared commitment to a rules-based order, Canada and Japan are well placed to strike this balance together and jointly lead a broader coalition of middle powers. As Masson observed, Japan takes a long-term view of its partnerships; Canada matching that commitment will be key to realizing the relationship’s full potential.
Key Takeaways
- Economic security is now essential. With international rules no longer universally upheld, Canada and Japan must build the capacity to counter economic coercion.
- Japan offers a model. Japan’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and indispensability, from rare earth diversification to its national growth strategy, offers valuable lessons for Canada.
- Energy anchors a bilateral partnership with Japan. Canada’s chokepoint-free Pacific route, expanding LNG capacity and established Japanese investment position it as a strong energy partner with Japan.
- Trust must be earned. Sustained attention to Asian partners, timely project delivery and deeper mutual understanding are essential to cementing long-term strategic relationships.
- Middle-power leadership is within reach. Together, Canada and Japan can anchor a coalition of middle powers, with an upgraded and expanded CPTPP as its most concrete vehicle.
About the Author
Abigail Finnamore is a volunteer contributor with the CGAI. She previously spent three years as a strategy consultant at OC&C Strategy Consultants in the UK, supporting clients on growth strategy, market entry and commercial due diligence across sectors. Since recently relocating to Alberta, she has joined the board of The Homelessness Society of the Bow Valley as a director. Her interests lie in foreign policy, geopolitics and economic security. She holds a BSc in Anthropology from University College London.
Canadian Global Affairs Institute
The Canadian Global Affairs Institute focuses on the entire range of Canada’s international relations in all its forms including trade investment and international capacity building. Successor to the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute (CDFAI, which was established in 2001), the Institute works to inform Canadians about the importance of having a respected and influential voice in those parts of the globe where Canada has significant interests due to trade and investment, origins of Canada’s population, geographic security (and especially security of North America in conjunction with the United States), social development, or the peace and freedom of allied nations. The Institute aims to demonstrate to Canadians the importance of comprehensive foreign, defence and trade policies which both express our values and represent our interests.
The Institute was created to bridge the gap between what Canadians need to know about Canadian international activities and what they do know. Historically Canadians have tended to look abroad out of a search for markets because Canada depends heavily on foreign trade. In the modern post-Cold War world, however, global security and stability have become the bedrocks of global commerce and the free movement of people, goods and ideas across international boundaries. Canada has striven to open the world since the 1930s and was a driving factor behind the adoption of the main structures which underpin globalization such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization and emerging free trade networks connecting dozens of international economies. The Canadian Global Affairs Institute recognizes Canada’s contribution to a globalized world and aims to inform Canadians about Canada’s role in that process and the connection between globalization and security.
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