BRIEFING NOTE

by Kate Todd

Summary

• The maritime security environment has changed due to technological advances in artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, robotics, and weaponry in an era of great power competition.
• Both allies and adversaries are investing in and adopting autonomous vessels that are revolutionizing naval warfare. Autonomous vessels are those that utilize AI to operate without the need for physical human intervention or crews. These vessels can vary in their level of autonomy as well as their ability to carry a crew. Optionally crewed vessels are those that can operate with or without a traditional complement of sailors.
• Several navies including the United States Navy, Royal Navy, and Royal Australian Navy are changing their fleet design, organizational structures, training, doctrine and concepts of operations to take advantage of the benefits offered by autonomous vessels.
• Canada should procure autonomous vessels to ensure that the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) remains interoperable with allies and capable of deterring and countering emerging threats.

Context

• Technological advances in AI, sensors, and weaponry are changing the maritime security environment, creating challenges for conventional naval forces and necessitating new approaches to naval warfare. As these technologies have become more available and less expensive, navies have adopted and integrated AI wherever possible, space and maritime based sensors have proliferated, and potential adversaries have procured a large number of increasingly lethal weaponry.
  • AI is being employed to navigate and operate autonomous surface and underwater vessels as well as to analyze data and aid military decision-making.
  • Sensors used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance are making it easier to identify and track and more difficult to conceal vessels.
  • State and non-state actors are procuring and deploying weaponry including drones and anti-ship missiles, making the seas more dangerous.
• In a new era of great power competition, Canada’s allies and adversaries are investing heavily in autonomous vessels. The application of these technologies in a military context can give countries a competitive edge in future combat scenarios, as is being demonstrated in the war in Ukraine. In the Black Sea, the Ukrainian military is currently using remotely operated high speed maritime surface vessels to target and destroy Russian warships. Ships in Russia’s fleet are falling prey to cheaper, more manoeuvrable, and more deadly autonomous vessels.
  • The navies of all Five Eyes partners aside from Canada have begun trialing uncrewed autonomous vessels. The United States Navy (USN) has the most advanced autonomous vessel program and is prioritizing the development of autonomous platforms as part of its strategy to maintain and widen its military-technological superiority over near-peer adversaries.
  • China’s navy has developed and is testing multiple classes of autonomous vessels, including uncrewed surface and underwater vessels.
  • Russia’s navy has several autonomous underwater vessels in service.
• Use of autonomous vessels is reshaping how navies approach future fleet compositions and naval warfare. The USN plans to make 30 percent of their vessels autonomous by 2045, allowing the navy to take full advantage of AI’s capabilities and distribute their capacity in a way that complicates enemy’s targeting equations. Autonomous vessels will perform essential and dangerous missions, improve surveillance capabilities and situational awareness, and operate for extended periods, lessening human workloads. In the face developments in emerging threats including hypersonic weapons and swarming autonomous systems, autonomous vessels will enable militaries to respond to threats, make decisions and take actions faster than humans could. 

Considerations

• As other navies around the world add autonomous vessels to their fleets, navies without such technology will struggle to operate with new vessels and protect against emerging technological threats such as swarming autonomous systems.
• Navies wishing to procure and test autonomous vessels for military use should expect long lead times if vessels are not purchased off-the-shelf from allies.
• Navies will have to update their doctrine, concepts of operations, and organizational structures to support the adoption of autonomous vessel technology. When updating naval doctrine and concepts of operations, policy makers must outline what the ethical uses of and permissible mission sets for autonomous vessels are. When updating organizational structures to support the adoption of autonomous vessels, attention should be paid to training and information technology needs.
• Countries will have to ensure they have an appropriate legislative and regulatory framework to allow for the operation of autonomous vessels in their naval fleets.
• Autonomous vessel technology is in its nascency and is vulnerable to communication errors, cyber-attacks, and electronic warfare. Procuring and employing optionally crewed rather than fully autonomous vessels offers valuable redundancies, allowing crews to operate vessels in conditions where communications are restricted or the vessels’ systems are targeted.
• The adoption of autonomous vessels reduces the demand for sailors to operate naval assets. This will alleviate personnel shortages, improve work-life balance of sailors, and cut operating costs.

Implications for Canada

• Canada’s state and non-state adversaries are adopting autonomous vessels and utilizing drones and hypersonic weapon technology. If Canada does not follow suit and procure autonomous vessels, the RCN’s fleet will have a limited ability to respond to threats in contested maritime environments and be vulnerable to attacks from emerging technologies.
• To maintain interoperability, Canada’s military assets must be able to communicate and operate with allied autonomous vessels and Canadian Armed Forces members must be trained to work on or with autonomous vessels.
• The Canadian Surface Combatant, the class of ship Canada is working to procure to replace the RCN’s aging Halifax Class Frigates, are not autonomous. If Canada was to follow the lead of the USN in procuring 30 percent autonomous vessels, 5 autonomous surface vessels should be procured to complement the 15 planned Surface Combatants. When planning future procurement of ships, including replacements for the Kingston Class Maritime Coastal Defence Vessels, Canada should consider acquiring optionally crewed or uncrewed autonomous vessels as well as traditionally crewed ships. The procurement of optionally crewed vessels would offer the most resiliency against potential threats.
• To adopt autonomous vessels, Canada’s navy will have to stand up new organizations within the institution to monitor and manage the vessels, re-train sailors or hire new personnel with computational competencies, and update their operational concepts.
• Domestic development of autonomous vessels could augment Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy that was implemented in 2010, aiming to bolster Canada’s marine industry, eliminate boom and bust cycles of procurement, and provide the RCN and Coast Guard with much-needed vessels. The current Strategy does not include the development of ships that can be exported to allies. Canada should pivot the Strategy to include the development of autonomous vessels for domestic and allied use. This would provide an opportunity for Canada’s marine industry to grow, to draw on Canada’s competitive advantage and expertise in AI, and for Canada to contribute to its Five Eyes and NATO alliances in a meaningful way.