2013 Country Studies

West African Canaries in the Gold Mine: Investment Outlook and Challenges for Burkina Faso & Mali
by Chris W.J. Roberts
In a new report, Chris Roberts, President of African Access Consulting, argues that both Burkina Faso and Mali represent two pivotal West African states that attract considerable Canadian mining foreign direct investment. This makes them uniquely suited to provide important signals about three interdependent global challenges: environmental vulnerability, state fragility and resource nationalism. He concludes that the two nations face tremendous challenges to overcome their ranking among the globe's poorest 25 economies.

2012 Country Studies

Door Half Open: Opportunities and Challenges for Potential Investors in Romania
by Dragos C. Popa
This country study examines the political, economic and security climates of Romania. Currently the country is undergoing a vibrant process of transformation. It has been successful in finding peaceful solutions to its post-Communist political challenges, but suffers from a highly fragmented political scene, which results in inconsistency in the production and application of economic laws, regulations, policies and procedures. However, the paper concludes that there are definitely prospects for foreign investors to pursue business opportunities in Romania.

Philippines
by Peter Sutherland
A new Country Study by Peter Sutherland shows that the country has gained new confidence as a result of the recent election of a new president, but in order to regain its position as one of the leading economies in Southeast Asia it will need sound macroeconomic policy, investment in infrastructure, and effective programs to address the social and economic disparities that fuel local insurgencies.

Serbia Between East and West
by Hrach Gregorian
A new Country Study from CDFAI Fellow Hrach Gregorian, President of the Institute of World Affairs, discusses the risks and opportunities of doing business with Serbia and concludes that while business relationships may be complicated, working in close consultation with local experts can lead to fruitful investment.

Turkey: Current and Future Political, Economic and Security Trends
by Aliye Pekin Çelik and Laura Elizabeth Çelik
A new Country Study from Aliye Pekin Çelik and Laura Elizabeth Çelik investigates the political, economic and security trends of Turkey. They note that the country is a secular democracy with one of the fastest growing economies in the world, with aspirations of becoming a regional power in the Middle East. They conclude that in addition to having good relations with western and eastern countries, the Republic of Turkey is an economically successful, stable, peaceful, democratic, and secular country in a region rife with conflict. 

2010 Country Studies

Mexico: Current and Future Political, Economic and Security Trends
by Dr. Hal Klepak and Stephen J. Randall
In advance of the September 16th bicentenary celebration of the of Mexican Independence, authors Hal Klepak, Professor Emeritus of Strategy and Latin American History at the Royal Military College and CDFAI Fellow, Stephen J. Randall of the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary explore the challenges facing Mexico in the coming years and discuss implications for the partnership with Canada.

2009 Country Studies

Assessing Threats in the Niger Delta
by Patrick Lennox
Although there is a sense of optimism surrounding the situation in the Delta at the time of writing, this report predicts that unless fundamental disparities between the economic and environmental wellbeing of local populations and the profits made by transnational oil companies are rectified, the underlying driving forces of the conflict will continue to fester. Future flare-ups in the conflict can be expected to have greater geographic and destructive scope, following the trend-lines of the pre-amnesty/ceasefire period. To fully drain the swamp of conflict, the underlying problems that drive the conflict will have to be seriously addressed. Such a process is likely to take decades, rather than the weeks it has been since the amnesty/ceasefire. Expect more conflict and unrest to drive the political economic situation in the Delta in the medium to long-term.

Dancing on Snake Heads in Yemen
by Iris Glosemeyer
Yemen, known as a terrorist haven, is faced with a number of serious challenges and yet its government seems unaware of the problems that lie ahead. Iris Glosemeyer argues that because of its priorities, the government will be unable to quell problems arising from Yemeni political, socio-economic, and security spheres.

Resource Industries and Security Issues in Northern Alberta
by Dr. Tom Flanagan
The rapid expansion of natural-resource industries in northern Alberta, accompanied by growing environmentalist and aboriginal-rights movements, raises issues of possible extra-legal and even violent resistance to industrial development. In this paper Dr. Tom Flanagan assesses the threats posed by five potential sources of opposition: individual saboteurs, eco-terrorists, mainstream environmentalists, First Nations, and the Métis people.  
 

2008 Country Studies

Contemporary Piracy off the Horn of Africa
by Patrick Lennox, Ph.D.
As the instability in the state of Somalia grows, the threat of piracy in the Gulf of Aden only increases. Patrick Lennox, the J.L. Granatstein Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Calgary's Centre for Military Strategic Studies, explores the economic impact of piracy in the Gulf of Aden and what can be done to help bring stability back to the region.

Georgia: Risk and Opportunity
by Neil MacFarlane, Ph.D.
Although a small state, Georgia sits on an important transit route for oil and gas leaving the Caspian Basin and flowing to Mediterranean, European, and global markets. Neil MacFarlane argues, however, that the potential business opportunities in Georgia are far outweighed by the risks. In this paper he examines recent economic, social, and political trends and concludes that the country is both economically and politically unstable, and that the government is not prepared to address a daunting range of domestic and international difficulties.

Mexico: Current and Future Political, Economic and Security Trends
by Dr. Hal Klepak
Two major problems still face Mexico's economic and democratic development: deeply entrenched security problems across the country and its heavy economic dependence on the United States. In this paper looks at these problems and assess Mexico's future political, economic, and security trends.
 

2007 Country Studies

Nigeria:  Mapping Political, Economic and Business Scenarios in the Post-Obasanjo Era
by Stephen Nairne
Nigeria is an important state and cannot be ignored. It has the largest population of any country in Africa, is home to more Muslims than any other state on the continent, and is one of the world's leading oil producers. This paper explores possible medium term political, economic and business scenarios based on Umaru Yar'Adua's assumption of the Nigerian presidency in April 2007, the progress of the 2003 plan to reinvigorate the economy, and the strengthening counter-insurgency movement within Nigeria.

Turkey: Current and Future Political, Economic, and Security Trends
by Aliye Pekin Çelik, Ph.D. and Leylac Naqvi, MALD
Kemal Atatürk's efforts to Westernize and modernize the new republic of Turkey after the First World War gave Turkey a unique political perspective that continues to influence that country's political policies. This paper seeks to address the current and future political, economic and security trends in one of the only democratic, peaceful and stable countries in an unstable region.
 

2006 Country Studies

Colombia: Current and Future Political, Economic and Security Trends
by Dr. Steve Randall
 Some analysts believe that Colombia is now at the point where it can move beyond thirty years of internal strife and realize its full potential, especially its economic potential. This paper delves into the ways in which the political and security environment has evolved in Colombia in order to understand and examine Colombia's current political, economic and security trends and predict possible trends five to ten years in the future.